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| Email this article to a friend | Daniel Arthur Laprès | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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July-August 2000 Issue: ![]() Cover by Benjamin A. Hurd
The European Union hoped to improve the US-China terms, but still fell short in some areas--perhaps a case of diminishing marginal gains
That the EU negotiators did not set as a priori ty the greater opening of the local market for movies and cultural products more generally is puzzling. Perhaps the French predilection for invoking "cultural exceptions" to justify local quotas on television content and public subsidies of local productions was felt to have crippled the European Union's negotiating position. |
As the last major hurdle on China's route to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the negotiations with China afforded the European Union (EU) a historic opportunity to pry open the local PRC market. Since the PRC's accession will, in practice, be subject to unanimous consent of the WTO's 135 members, the scene was set for the European Union, China's second-largest trading partner, to tee off on the gains achieved in November by the United States in its market-access agreement with China (see The CBR, January-February 2000). Instead, EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy proclaimed from the outset his 80 percent satisfaction with the US agreement. After the completion of the negotiations, he concluded that more than 80 percent of the European Union's objectives for improvement had been obtained. The non-discrimination (Most Favored Nation and national treatment) principles of the WTO-predecessor General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947, as updated in 1994, require that any fresh concession obtain ed beyond those negotiated by the United States benefit all other WTO members to the same extent. In addition, under the terms of each agreement, some gains will enter into effect immediately, and both agreements reaffirm the grandfathering principle--that any benefits enjoyed by a WTO member's companies before China's accession shall be maintained after membership. In such circumstances, a comparison of the results of the two sets of negotiations may reveal opportunities for firms to gain competitive advantages in the lead-up to China's formal entry into the world trade body. The achievements of the EU negotiators Since the purpose of the negotiations was understood to be the achievement of advantages for home country enterprises, it is useful to inquire to what extent the EU negotiators satisfied European economic interest groups' desiderata. In fact, the European Union obtained significant duty concessions over and above the commitments given to the United States on some 150 specific industrial and agricultural products (see Table). For instance, the duty rate reduction the US negotiators won on wine imports, from the current 65 percent to 20 percent, was considerably improved by their EU counterparts (the duty rate will now fall to 14 percent). Spokesmen for the European insurance industry have been especially vocal in their expression of satisf action with the results of the negotiations, which included the pledge that China would grant seven licenses immediately upon accession. And given the very specific niches covered by the EU-China agreement (for instance, dredging, NPK fertilizers, insurance company licenses in Foshan, Guangdong Province, and accelerated access for banks to the local currency market in Zhuhai), it is reasonable to suppose that the most active of the European Union's interest groups have been placated. Even in the field of telecommunications, where the EU negotiators brought back less than a full set of concessions, industry reactions have been positive. Especially noteworthy are the EU negotiators' achievements beyond what certain interest groups had sought. For instance, the Council of the Bars and Law Societies of the European Union called upon China "to allow foreign law firms to advise on home country, any third country, and international law" as well as "to allow Chinese lawyers working for foreign law firms to advise on Chinese law" (emphasis added). Apparently, the EU negotiators also obtained the right of lawyers of WTO members who are not Chinese citizens to advise on Chinese law. The disappointments Perhaps the major disappointments of the US and EU agreements concern the failure to win more concessions from the Chinese in liberalization of the telecommunications and audiovisual sectors, including the Internet. The EU negotiators had specifically identified telecommunications as a sector in which they intended to improve upon the Chinese commitments vis-a-vis the United States. Indeed, Lamy even declared publicly the EU goal of majority foreign ownership of telecommunications operations in China. But in the end, even after full implementation of the terms negotiated by the United States and improved in particular by the European Union, China will be allowed to limit foreign investment in the telecommunications sector to 49-50 percent, depending on the sub-sector. Moreover, since the Ministry of Information Industry currently treats Internet service providers (ISPs) as well as Internet content providers (ICPs) as telecommunications businesses, one must conclude that foreign majority ownership or control in these nascent sectors will also be excluded for the foreseeable future. That the EU negotiators did not set as a priority the greater opening of the local market for movies and cultural products more generally is puzzling. Perhaps the French predilection for invoking "cultural exceptions" to justify local quotas on television content and public subsidies of local productions was felt to have crippled the European Union's negotiating position. Toward an overall assessment The US and EU negotiators, and indeed most commentators, have tended to evaluate their achieveme nts by reference only to the present situation. Accordingly, since no investment whatsoever is today allowed, for example, in the telecommunications sector, even 50 percent limits on foreign ownership after accession represent a considerable achievement. But at least two other references would seem to apply to the negotiations. First, on the assumption that the principal country investment and trade alternative to China is India, a comparison between these countries' WTO regimes will, in practice, likely influence the future decisions of international business. In this sense, were India's WTO regime to be far more favorable to foreign business, any victory today for China's protectionists might in the end prove to be Pyrrhic. While a comprehensive analysis of this question is beyond the scope of this comment, a few points are worth highlighting. Though India has been pursing a process of liberalization since 1991, and is indeed already a member of the WTO, China's terms of accession will cause it to leapfrog ahead of its South Asian rival in many aspects of opening and liberalization. For instance, while India's average rate of duty toward other WTO members has been reduced from an average of 71 percent in 1993 to a current average of 35 percent, this rate is 2-3 times higher than the comparable Chinese rate would be after accession, under the terms laid out in the US and EU agreements. On the other hand, in at least one important respect, China will remain less open than India: Apparently, China will be maintain its excessively high requirements on the size of foreign investors' PRC businesses. For instance, the requirements applicable to foreign investors in the tourism business are quite steep. This is in addition to the many other financial requirements foreign investors face. The net result of these rules may be to disqualify a lot of small and medium-sized businesses from investing in China. This is a considerable disadvantage for China relative to India. Second, insofar as the expectation of democratic countries in accepting the application to Hong Kong of the "one country, two systems" principle was, at least in part, that the liberal, capitalist regime in Hong Kong would spill over, if only by drips, into China, a comparison of Hong Kong's and China's WTO regimes governing the legal profession is especially significant (see Whither Hong Kong?, The CBR, July-August 2000). Because the Chinese legal profession is both understaffed and undereducated, its protection from foreign competition has long been an avowed goal of the authorities. For instance, the US negotiators failed to win the right for their professionals to advise on Chinese law, though this has since been obtained by the EU negotiators. The right, which the EU negotiators also won, for foreign lawyers to instruct members of Chinese firms directly will, in effect, allow foreign lawyers to offer services in Chinese law, including representation before the Chinese courts. The net result will surely be the more rapid improvement, and indeed the greater democratization, of the Chinese legal system. The home stretch While the European Union was the last major holdout in the accession negotiations, it will not be the last of the 37 WTO members that requested bilateral negotiations with China. As of early June, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Switzerland still had yet to finalize accession agreements with China. Once all these bilateral agreements have been filed with the WTO Secretariat (which can take several months from their signature), the Working Party will prepare the Schedules of Concessions on Goods and the Schedule of Commitments on Services, which reconcile and consolidate the results of the bilateral negotiations and which comprise annexes to the final Protocol of Accession. In parallel with the bilateral negotiations, China has been negotiating with the WTO Working Party the exact text of the Protocol, a process that remains unfinished, but that the Working Party has indicated it now intends to intensify. The Protocol of Accession and Annexes together with the Working Party's Report will then be presented to the WTO's General Council, the assembly of all WTO members. In principle, any member would be entit led to call a vote, whereupon a two-thirds majority would be required for China's accession to carry. But a call for a vote is unlikely, as all members have expressed their desire that the PRC should regain its seat in the WTO (China was an original signatory to the GATT but withdrew several years after its formation). Once the internal WTO procedures are completed, it will be up to the Standing Committee of the PRC National People's Congress to ratifiy the agreements, and 30 days after filing of such ratification with the WTO in Geneva, China's accession would enter into effect. Stacked deck In the end, the 14-year EU-China WTO negotiation process proved to be loaded against the Chinese side. The WTO practice, in which members consent unanimously on the terms of an applicant's membership, encouraged China's negotiating partners to implement coordinated strategies. The European Union appears not to have exploited its holdout position to the fullest extent possible to pressure China into further concessions. The hope nonetheless remains that the benefits of opening and liberalization will be so evident to the Chinese authorities and the Chinese people that they will, of their own initiative, eliminate the vestiges of protectionism remaining in the country's international trade regime even after accession to the WTO.
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