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USCBC Bulletin
USCBC Hosts Forecast 2008 Conference, ReceptionMember company executives gathered in Washington, DC, on January 31 to hear experts analyze the year ahead at the US-China Business Council's (USCBC) 27th annual Forecast Conference. Predicting that China's economic growth in 2008 will likely slow modestly to about 9.5 percent, Jay Bryson, a director and global economist at Wachovia Corp., argued that China's economy is less dependent on exports to the United States than is widely assumed and that a US slowdown may have only a marginal impact on PRC economic growth. Bryson also predicted steady appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar. In the political realm, Joseph Fewsmith, a leading expert on Chinese domestic politics at Boston University, detailed some of the important personnel changes that emerged from last fall's Chinese Communist Party congress and how President Hu Jintao may manage his second five-year term. Fewsmith also traced the emergence of nationalistic voices to debates within Chinese intellectual circles during the 1990s and noted that US companies should be aware of the possible impact of this nationalism. Halfway into the morning session, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab outlined the administration's 2008 trade agenda for China in an off-the-record speech. During the second half of the morning program, Gallup Organization Senior Methodologist Rajesh Srinivasan presented trends and projections about Chinese consumers. Drawing on 12 years of in-country polling on consumer behavior and attitudes, Gallup data show that international brand recognition among twenty-something Chinese consumers is relatively high, but "made in China" brands are also appealing and have been able to compete vigorously for consumer loyalty. Closing the expert panel session was USCBC Shanghai Chief Representative Godfrey Firth, who reported that US companies in China expect another year of growing sales, though recent changes in the labor contract and tax regimes pose new operating challenges. The conference concluded with a luncheon keynote address by William Cohen, former US secretary of Defense and chair and CEO of the Cohen Group, who discussed strategic issues to watch in the US-China relationship. The evening before the conference, USCBC hosted a reception for member companies, US government and PRC Embassy officials, and other luminaries in academia and the China field. Attended by roughly 130 guests, the reception introduced incoming PRC Embassy Minister and Deputy Chief of Mission Xie Feng to the audience. Xie is well known to USCBC from his previous post as deputy director-general for North American Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing. Conference participants received a packet of USCBC reports, many of which are now available at www.uschina.org. USCBC appreciates the support of its member companies and the speakers in making Forecast 2008 a success.
Copyright 2008 US-China Business Council |
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