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It is hard to describe in a short review what a great piece of commercial enterprise this book is, and what a terrible book it is at the same time.

As a product, a commercial object, a journalistic piece, this book is fantastic. From the hysterical promotional language of the publisher's advance notices to the ominous cover design showing a fearsome fiery glow rising from a dark horizon, and the progressively larger letters proclaiming The Coming Conflict with China, this book is media magic. Who could have foreseen, as the authors whizzed through the writing, editing, and printing of Coming Conflict, that it would hit the stands precisely as the American political furor over China (driven by the funding scandals of the 1996 campaign) was shifting into high gear. Talk about "timed-release" products! This book instantly established its authors on the TV talk show circuit, and made these two former Time magazine Asia journalists respected authorities on issues of Chinese military strategy and other weighty matters.

At the same time, a few words cannot describe how irresponsible this book is. It is not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing with the authors' arguments and claims. They are entitled to put forth their central and alarming theme: that the United States and China are headed for long -term conflict because China is not only an ambitious power with its sights set on regional dominance in the Asia Pacific, but also is convinced that the United States is its primary strategic adversary.

What is so appalling about this book is the intentional choice of the most inflammatory verbiage; the imputing of complex psychological motives to people and nations (principally China) with no supporting evidence; the manipulative assembling of bits and pieces of fact to prove complex webs of evil intent; and the utterly phony--and often contradictory--logic it employs.

For people with some background in Chinese affairs, this book is a familiar American artifact, reminiscent of some of the colorful writings of the 1950s (Freda Utley's The China Story or Anthony Kubek's How the Far East Was Lost come to mind). It generates a hearty brew: China as a looming foreign menace; a treacherous "New China Lobby," made up of US businesses and former US government officials who do China's work in America in order to curry favor with the bosses in Beijing; and dramatic "war games" scenarios leading to US-China hostilities. For example, the authors claim that China's strategy regarding US-China trade is to "let the invader thrust deep into China and then slaughter him with the deadly pinpricks of guerrilla warfare."

This book is not a research piece. It is a product of our times, a confusing and disorganized polemic that scares where it should analyze. I recently spoke bluntly with one of the authors of the book about what I regarded as the cheap, manipulative way in which they presented their views to the reader. The author smiled genially and said, "Well, it is readable...." What an indictment.

I, for one, hope this book finds its way quickly to the bookstore ''remainder'' shelves, as the Freda Utley genre of the 1950s finally did. In the meantime, give the authors and their talented publicists credit for a marketing coup, and dig far deeper than Bernstein and Munro apparently managed to do if you're seriously interested in the subjects about which they write so blithely.

--Robert A. Kapp

Robert A. Kapp is president of the US-China Business Council.

Rarely is a research report published that is both a phenomenal accomplishment and an invaluable resource for any company library, regardless of the company's industry sector or line of business. Multinational Companies in China: Winners and Losers fits the bill nicely, supplying the reader with a number of case studies containing key information on what spells success or failure for a China venture.

What makes this report so invaluable--and such a fascinating read--are the 50 case studies of 22 multinational companies (MNCs) in nine PRC industry sectors: autos, chemicals, consumer goods, electronics, food and beverages, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, and services. Each chapter begins with a sector overview, outlining the major developments and obstacles to foreign business development in China in that industry. The company-specific case studies then describe business strategies, how well the strategies worked, and the lessons learned. Tables containing detailed information on company investments in China complement a number of the case studies. These boxes contain the names and type of venture, total registered capital, the equity distribution among the partners, and products or services produced by the venture.

The authors contend that of the nine sectors outlined, the consumer goods sector--including household and personal care products--has come closest to experiencing the "China Miracle." The reason is that the products are genuinely affordable, given China's per capita income levels: "when makers of shampoo and soap talk about the potential of a market of 1.2 billion consumers in China, they are at least being more plausible than colleagues selling mobile phones, cars, and professional services," assert the authors. Moreover, there is far less PRC bureaucratic interference in consumer goods than in other sectors, allowing multinational s to apply in China the business development methods that have proven successful in other developing Asian countries.

In contrast, services firms have experienced the most difficulties in China. This finding reflects the dearth of qualified PRC personnel and the overwhelming number of regulatory constraints in China's accounting, advertising, banking, insurance, and legal sectors.

According to the report, success in the oil and gas sector has been hard to gauge. For example, Total of France was able to build an $800 million refining facility in Dalian, while Anglo-Dutch Shell has been "stuck in the shifting sands of the Chinese bureaucracy" in its effort to build a refinery in Guangdong. The authors claim that Total "anticipated Beijing's opposition to joint venture refineries [selling to] the domestic market," while Shell insists on producing for the domestic market.

No matter the sector, the case studies illustrate that some challenges in China are universal, namely, distributing products, finding qualified personnel, maintaining quality control, minimizing bureaucratic interference, and protecting intellectual property rights. Though not inexpensive, the report is sure to reward readers with valuable insights into what makes for a successful business future in China.

--Meredith L. Singer

Meredith L. Singer is a business advisory services associate at the US-China Business Council.

After receiving numerous inquiries from clients regarding China's distribution system, a team of researchers in Arthur Andersen's Hong Kong office set out to interview distributors, retailers, and government officials in Shanghai and Guangzhou in order to answer basic questions on supply chain management and logistics for fast-moving consumer goods. The result, Managing Distribution in China, is a clearly written, easy-to-use guide covering changes in China's traditional distribution networks, useful tactics for working with Chinese distributors, modes of transportation available in China, and a checklist of issues to consider when developing a distribution strategy. The appendices provide an in-depth look at beer distribution in China and list highlights of China's new joint-venture trading company regulations.

Managing Distribution in China will be particularly welcome to newcomers to the issues, as the guide provides a concise review of the current system and salient tips on how to select and work with Chinese distributors. While those already active in the field may find the checklist a useful tool for reviewing their own distribution strategies, they are unlikely to learn anything new, as the study is broadly focused and descriptive, rather than prescriptive. The exception is for companies in the beer industry, which may find the more detailed information on market segmentation and pricing of foreign brands in Appendix I quite useful.

--Pamela Baldinger

Pamela Baldinger is director of the US-China Business Council's Hong Kong office.

This book provides a general overview of issues relating to technology transfer between countries from the perspective of both developed and less-developed countries (LDCs). A quick read, the book covers basic definitions and concepts, examples of barriers to technology transfer, and ethical issues associated with transferring technology to LDCs. However, A Macro Perspective should not be mistaken for a guidebook on licensing technology in LDCs.

Many technology transferors in developed countries face the ethical dilemma of whether to share with LDCs sensitive technologies that could be used--or abused--to manufacture destructive weapons. Reddy details this and other political, social, religious, ethical, and economic barriers to technology transfer. He also discusses technology "mismatches," in which the level of technology LDCs seek is quite different from the level developed nations are willing to offer. A developed-country firm producing sophisticated electronic typewriters in a developing country, f or instance, might find its product unsuitable to local requirements because of frequent power outages. A standard manual typewriter, though considered outdated in developed countries, would be the more appropriate level of technology to transfer in such cases. Reddy devotes an entire chapter to the means of improving technology transfers to LDCs, stressing any technology transferred should be both affordable and appropriate given the country's conditions.

Though Reddy mentions technology transfer problems specific to China, including copyright infringements and human rights, for the most part he discusses technology transfer issues on a far broader scale. Policymakers and those involved in technical research and development will find the book interesting reading, but business executives looking for tips on navigating China's technology transfer approval process are not likely to find that this volume offers practical advice to take to the next round of licensing negotiations.

--Piper Lounsbury

Piper Lounsbury is deputy director of the Council's Beijing office.