With attention focused on China’s leadership transition due to an unusually large number of positions up for grabs and Bo Xilai’s dismissal from his communist party posts, the US-China Business Council recently released a report outlining China’s leadership structure and transition.
China’s 18th Party Congress, scheduled for this fall, marks the beginning of a large turnover of China’s top government and communist party leadership. Roughly 70 percent of members of China’s top political institutions are expected to step down by the time the transition ends in early 2013, including President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who are expected to take over as president and premier, respectively, are the only two members of the Politburo Standing Committee who are expected to retain their seats.
Before he was removed from his positions as Chongqing party secretary and a member of the Politburo, Bo had garnered significant attention in China for anticorruption efforts and his “Chongqing model” that supported state dominance in the economy. In an assessment of the upcoming transition, Cheng Li, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a China Business Review article that Bo’s “unconventional and bold efforts to tap public opinion for political advancement may change the dynamic in which future leaders jockey for power.”
China’s political system is divided into three major institutions: the government, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the military. The government and military are subordinate to the CCP, which sets the national policy agenda. The CCP is organized into three major bodies: the Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Politburo Standing Committee. Each organization is respectively smaller in size and holds increasingly more political power, with the Politburo Standing Committee holding the most authority.
18TH PARTY CONGRESS AND CCP LEADERSHIP CHANGES
Leadership transitions in China are not a uniform process, and the timing of when positions are vacated and filled depends on the institution, level, and function. In the past, appointments to senior-level party positions within the Central Committee, Politburo, and the Politburo Standing Committee have been made at the party congress in the fall. The party may appoint government positions within the State Council, such as those of minister or vice minister, at the National People’s Congress (NPC) in March 2013. But it’s also possible that these positions will be filled after the autumn party congress or after the spring NPC meeting.
Many national- and provincial-level party leaders will be replaced due to reaching—or approaching—the targeted retirement age of 68. This includes at least 14 of the 25 member Politburo and an estimated 60 percent of the 370 full-time and alternate members of the Central Committee.
State Council and central government positions
Based on past practice, key leadership positions of the State Council and its offices will also undergo change because of retirement or promotion. These posts could include the premier, vice premiers, state councilors, and many of the heads of the State Council’s 27 ministries and commissions. Though exceptions are made, government guidelines state that ministers are supposed to retire at age 65, while officials at lower levels should retire at age 60.
Local- and provincial-level leadership
Many of the party secretaries and governors of China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and centrally administered municipalities are also likely to be replaced.
According to the CCP Organization Department, all four levels of party leadership below the national level (provincial, municipal, county, and town) will complete major turnovers of their party positions by June 2012. This process entails selecting officials from a pool of 30 million party cadres and appointing them to positions in China’s provinces, cities, counties, and townships.
|Central Committee||Politburo||Politburo Standing Committee|
|50 membersConvenes once per year at “plenary sessions” during which the CCP announces policy changesMembers selected every five years from a pool of more than 2,000 delegates to the party congress||25 membersOfficially recognized as the chief political decision-making body in ChinaMembers selected from the Central CommitteeMembers announced at the party congress every five years||Currently comprises nine members (though number is not fixed)Regarded as the most elite group of political leaders within the CCP structureMembers selected from the PolitburoMembers announced at the party congress every five years|
Most appointments, such as municipal party secretaries and CCP commissioners within all government bureaus at all four sub-national levels of government, should be finalized by June 2012. This precedes the party congress to allow recently appointed officials to “elect” senior posts. Current provincial-level party secretaries may be elevated to more senior party positions at the party congress. This means there will likely be additional changes to provincial party secretaries following both the party congress in the fall and the subsequent appointments to state bureaucratic positions in spring 2013.